A finding method of business risk factors using characteristics of probability distributions of effect ratios on qualitative and quantitative hybrid simulation

Masaki Samejima*, Keisuke Negoro, Koshichiro Mitsukuni, Masanori Akiyoshi

*この研究の対応する著者

研究成果査読

抄録

We propose a finding method of business risk factors on qualitative and quantitative hybrid simulation in time series. Effect ratios of qualitative arcs in the hybrid simulation vary output values of the simulation, so we define effect ratios causing risk as business risk factors. Finding business risk factors in entire ranges of effect ratios is time-consuming. It is considered that probability distributions of effect ratios in present time step and ones in previous time step are similar, the probability distributions in present time step can be estimated. Our method finds business risk factors in only estimated ranges effectively. Experimental results show that a precision rate and a recall rate are 86%, and search time is decreased 20% at least.

本文言語English
ジャーナルIEEJ Transactions on Electronics, Information and Systems
130
4
出版ステータスPublished - 2010
外部発表はい

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 電子工学および電気工学

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