A measure of credibility of solar power prediction

Haoyang Shen, Hideitsu Hino, Noboru Murata, Shinji Wakao

研究成果: Conference contribution

抄録

Recently, remarkable developments of new energy technologies have been achieved against various energy problems. Photovoltaic (PV) system, one of such technologies, has an advantage of utilizing infinite and clean energy. On the contrary, it also has a disadvantage of unreliable power supply mainly caused by unstable weather. The fluctuation of the power supply of PV systems are considerably large because of rapid insulation changes and rapid weather changes, and in some cases, it seems impossible to realize high-accuracy prediction even with sophisticated prediction models. In this paper, using recently proposed estimator for the Shannon information content, a method to output a measure of credibility for prediction is proposed. With the proposed method, it is possible to judge whether the energy supply at a certain future time is unpredictably fluctuate compared to the current value or not, and it is possible to take measures against the rapid change of solar energy generation in advance. From an experimental result using solar energy supply data, we see that the proposed measure of credibility reflects the difficulty of predicting solar energy supply.

本文言語English
ホスト出版物のタイトルProceedings - 10th International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications, ICMLA 2011
ページ286-291
ページ数6
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2011
イベント10th International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications, ICMLA 2011 - Honolulu, HI, United States
継続期間: 2011 12 182011 12 21

出版物シリーズ

名前Proceedings - 10th International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications, ICMLA 2011
2

Conference

Conference10th International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications, ICMLA 2011
国/地域United States
CityHonolulu, HI
Period11/12/1811/12/21

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • コンピュータ サイエンスの応用
  • 人間とコンピュータの相互作用

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