A wind power forecasting method with confidence interval

Tatsuya Iizaka*, Toru Jintsugawa, Hideyuki Kondo, Yousuke Nakanishi, Yoshikazu Fukuyama, Hiroyuki Mori

*この研究の対応する著者

研究成果: Conference contribution

1 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

This paper presents a wind power forecasting method with confidence interval. Wind speed forecasts are calculated by regression models using GPV (Grid Point Vale) weather forecasts. The forecasts are adjusted by fuzzy inference using the latest error. The wind power forecasts are translated from the wind speed forecasts using two power-curves. They are combined by fuzzy inference depending on wind direction. The error confidence interval models are generated for each forecasting target time. Each confidence interval is combined by another fuzzy inference. The proposed method has been applied to actual power generators, and found that forecasting errors are better than the conventional methods. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

本文言語English
ホスト出版物のタイトル54th IEEE International Midwest Symposium on Circuits and Systems, MWSCAS 2011
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2011 10 13
外部発表はい
イベント54th IEEE International Midwest Symposium on Circuits and Systems, MWSCAS 2011 - Seoul, Korea, Republic of
継続期間: 2011 8 72011 8 10

出版物シリーズ

名前Midwest Symposium on Circuits and Systems
ISSN(印刷版)1548-3746

Other

Other54th IEEE International Midwest Symposium on Circuits and Systems, MWSCAS 2011
国/地域Korea, Republic of
CitySeoul
Period11/8/711/8/10

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 電子材料、光学材料、および磁性材料
  • 電子工学および電気工学

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