TY - JOUR
T1 - An asymmetric option game in a duopolistic real estate market
AU - Goto, Makoto
AU - Tabata, Tomoaki
AU - Ono, Takahiro
N1 - Copyright:
Copyright 2011 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2005
Y1 - 2005
N2 - This article deals with investment decision-making under uncertainty and competition. The traditional net present value (NPV) method doesn't consider the flexibility of decision-making, so project values tend to be underestimated. A. real options approach that can make up for the weak point of NPV has recently been the focus, but it considers only one agent, similar to the money market. However, in actual case, a competitor's decision-making is sure to influence the project value of the agent. Therefore, the influence of a competitor's decision-making must be estimated. Game theory is effective to optimize one's own actions subject to a competitor's decision-making (strategy). Therefore, the reduction in project value due to competition is formulated by applying game theory to a real options approach. The model should be solved so that the conditional expected value is maximized. We considered a duopolistic real estate market by referring Grenadier [1] in previous studies. While the previous study formulated two symmetric agents, we try to extend the model to two asymmetric agents. Asymmetry results in an asymmetric equilibrium exercise strategy. With this result, we are able to explain the economic phenomenon that previous studies couldn't explain. That is, a firm with superior development technology has an advantage over the firm with inferior technology. Furthermore, we indicate the change in decision-making caused by uncertainty and construction costs from comparative statistics.
AB - This article deals with investment decision-making under uncertainty and competition. The traditional net present value (NPV) method doesn't consider the flexibility of decision-making, so project values tend to be underestimated. A. real options approach that can make up for the weak point of NPV has recently been the focus, but it considers only one agent, similar to the money market. However, in actual case, a competitor's decision-making is sure to influence the project value of the agent. Therefore, the influence of a competitor's decision-making must be estimated. Game theory is effective to optimize one's own actions subject to a competitor's decision-making (strategy). Therefore, the reduction in project value due to competition is formulated by applying game theory to a real options approach. The model should be solved so that the conditional expected value is maximized. We considered a duopolistic real estate market by referring Grenadier [1] in previous studies. While the previous study formulated two symmetric agents, we try to extend the model to two asymmetric agents. Asymmetry results in an asymmetric equilibrium exercise strategy. With this result, we are able to explain the economic phenomenon that previous studies couldn't explain. That is, a firm with superior development technology has an advantage over the firm with inferior technology. Furthermore, we indicate the change in decision-making caused by uncertainty and construction costs from comparative statistics.
KW - Competition
KW - Game theory
KW - Investment decision
KW - Real options
KW - Uncertainty
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M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:22444447279
VL - 56
SP - 1
EP - 11
JO - Journal of Japan Industrial Management Association
JF - Journal of Japan Industrial Management Association
SN - 0386-4812
IS - 1
ER -