Anatomy of a balance-of-payments crisis. Application of a computable general equilibrium model to Turkey, 1978-1980

Jeffrey D. Lewis, Shujiro Urata

研究成果: Article査読

13 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

This paper analyses quantitatively the causes of the foreign exchange crisis in Turkey in the late 1970s through application of a multisector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The model incorporates some mechanisms that simulate the actual workings of the foreign exchange market during the turbulent foreign exchange disequilibrium period 1978-1980. It features the simultaneous operation of both quantitative controls and premium rationing schemes. Factors contributing to the foreign exchange crisis are analysed through counterfactual simulations which examine the implications for the Turkish economy of use of a flexible exchange rate, no oil price shock in the 1978-1980 period, and maintaining a constant price-level deflated affective exchange rate. Our results indicate that while exchange rate policy played an important role in bringing about the foreign exchange crisis, the influence of other factors was substancial.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)281-303
ページ数23
ジャーナルEconomic Modelling
1
3
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 1984
外部発表はい

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics

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