TY - JOUR
T1 - Business scenario evaluation method using monte carlo simulation on qualitative and quantitative hybrid model
AU - Samejima, Masaki
AU - Akiyoshi, Masanori
AU - Mitsukuni, Koshichiro
AU - Komoda, Norihisa
PY - 2008
Y1 - 2008
N2 - We propose a business scenario evaluation method using qualitative and quantitative hybrid model. In order to evaluate business factors with qualitative causal relations, we introduce statistical values based on propagation and combination of effects of business factors by Monte Carlo simulation. In propagating an effect, we divide a range of each factor by landmarks and decide an effect to a destination node based on the divided ranges. In combining effects, we decide an effect of each arc using contribution degree and sum all effects. Through applied results to practical models it is confirmed that there are no differences between results obtained by quantitative relations and results obtained by the proposed method at the risk rate of 5%.
AB - We propose a business scenario evaluation method using qualitative and quantitative hybrid model. In order to evaluate business factors with qualitative causal relations, we introduce statistical values based on propagation and combination of effects of business factors by Monte Carlo simulation. In propagating an effect, we divide a range of each factor by landmarks and decide an effect to a destination node based on the divided ranges. In combining effects, we decide an effect of each arc using contribution degree and sum all effects. Through applied results to practical models it is confirmed that there are no differences between results obtained by quantitative relations and results obtained by the proposed method at the risk rate of 5%.
KW - Monte carlo simulation
KW - Qualitative and quantitative hybrid model
KW - Scenario planning
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U2 - 10.1541/ieejeiss.128.656
DO - 10.1541/ieejeiss.128.656
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:72349087302
VL - 128
JO - IEEJ Transactions on Electronics, Information and Systems
JF - IEEJ Transactions on Electronics, Information and Systems
SN - 0385-4221
IS - 4
ER -