Business scenario evaluation using monte carlo simulation on qualitative and quantitative hybrid model

Masaki Samejima*, Masanori Akiyoshi, Koshichiro Mitsukuni, Norihisa Komoda

*この研究の対応する著者

研究成果: Article査読

7 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

We propose a business scenario evaluation method using a qualitative/quantitative hybrid model. In order to evaluate business factors with qualitative causal relations, we introduce statistical values based on propagation and combination of effects of business factors by Monte Carlo simulation. In propagating an effect, we divide a range of each factor by landmarks and decide an effect to a destination node based on the divided ranges. In combining effects, we determine an effect of each arc using contribution degree and sum all effects. Through applied results to practical models, it is confirmed that there are no differences between results obtained by quantitative relations and results obtained by the proposed method at the risk rate of 5%.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)9-18
ページ数10
ジャーナルElectrical Engineering in Japan (English translation of Denki Gakkai Ronbunshi)
170
3
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2010 2
外部発表はい

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 電子工学および電気工学
  • エネルギー工学および電力技術

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