We estimate the time change of the rice production for every 10 years for a period of 100 years by using the MRI's CGCM containing the transient CO2 experiment, and the crop model named SIMRIW. On this estimation by these models, we choose the `Koshihikari' as a representative cultivar and assume optimal cultivation technologies are adopted. Annual and summer seasons mean air temperature increase almost linearly, and become 2.0 to 3.0 degree C higher after 70 years, 3.0 to 4.0 degree C higher after 100 years, and these temperature changes are almost 1.0 to 2.0 degree C smaller than the predictions of previous studies. As a result of this, the cultivated area of `Koshihikari' is estimated to spread northward, and the yield in currently cultivated area is also simulated not to change toward a harsh condition for at least 100 years, under optimal cultivation technologies.
|出版ステータス||Published - 1998|
|イベント||Proceedings of the 1997 1st International Conference on Ecosystems and Sustainable Development - Castle of Peniscola, Spain|
継続期間: 1997 10月 14 → 1997 10月 16
|Other||Proceedings of the 1997 1st International Conference on Ecosystems and Sustainable Development|
|City||Castle of Peniscola, Spain|
|Period||97/10/14 → 97/10/16|
ASJC Scopus subject areas