The authors constructed the framework for a preliminary assessment of climate change impact on the rice insurance payout in Japan. The framework consisted of various models ranging from climate projection downscaling, rice yield estimation, yield loss assessment, and rice insurance payout estimation. In this study, a simulation was conducted based on the dynamically downscaled regional climate projection with a lateral boundary condition given by the global climate projection of the Meteorological Research Institute Coupled General Circulation Model, version 2 (MRI CGCM2), under the A2 scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Results indicated that rice yield in the 2070s will decrease slightly in central and western Japan and increase in northern Japan. The increase in yield was derived from a significant reduction in yield loss caused by cool-summer damage; on the other hand, the decrease in yield was caused by the increase in yield loss caused by heat stress and the shortening of the growth period induced by the temperature rise. The increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration resulted in an increase in paddy rice biomass because of the fertilization effect; however, the increase in biomass was not enhanced much as a result of shortening of the growth period if early planting was not considered as an adaptation practice. Reflecting such changes in yield, the rice insurance payout significantly decreased in northern Japan but only slightly increased in the areas of central and western Japan. In total, the 9-yr mean payout in Japan in the 2070s decreased to 120.2 billion yen; the value corresponded to 87% of the payout averaged over 9 yr in the 1990s (1991-99).
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