Combined Equations for Estimating Global Solar Radiation: Projection of Radiation Field over Japan under Global Warming Conditions by Statistical Downscaling

Toshichika Iizumi, Motoki Nishimori, Masayuki Yokozawa

研究成果: Article査読

18 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

For this study, we developed a new statistical model to estimate the daily accumulated global solar radiation on the earth's surface and used the model to generate a high-resolution climate change scenario of the radiation field in Japan. The statistical model mainly relies on precipitable water vapor calculated from air temperature and relative humidity on the surface to estimate seasonal changes in global solar radiation. On the other hand, to estimate daily radiation fluctuations, the model uses either a diurnal temperature range or relative humidity. The diurnal temperature range, calculated from the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, and relative humidity is a general output of most climate models, and pertinent observation data are comparatively easy to access. The statistical model performed well when estimating the monthly mean value, daily fluctuation statistics, and regional differences in the radiation field in Japan. To project the change in the radiation field for the years 2081 to 2100, we applied the statistical model to the climate change scenario of a high-resolution Regional Climate Model with a 20-km mesh size (RCM20) developed at the Meteorological Research Institute based on the Special Report for Emission Scenario (SRES)-A2. The projected change shows the following tendency: global solar radiation will increase in the warm season and decrease in the cool season in many areas of Japan, indicating that global warming may cause changes in the radiation field in Japan. The generated climate change scenario for the radiation field is linked to long-term and short-term changes in air temperature and relative humidity obtained from the RCM20 and, consequently, is expected to complement the RCM20 datasets for an impact assessment study in the agricultural sector.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)9-23
ページ数15
ジャーナルjournal of agricultural meteorology
64
1
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2008
外部発表はい

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 農業および作物学
  • 大気科学

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