Contributions of historical changes in sowing date and climate to U.S. maize yield trend: An evaluation using large-area crop modeling and data assimilation

Toshichika Iizumi*, Gen Sakurai, Masayuki Yokozawa

*この研究の対応する著者

研究成果: Article査読

12 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

The consequences of changes observed in climate and management to yield trends in major cropproducing regions have implications for future food availability. We present an assessment of the impacts of historical changes in sowing date and climate to the maize yield trend in the U.S. Corn Belt from 1980 to 2006 by using large-area crop modeling and a data assimilation technique (i.e., the model optimization based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo method). Calibrated at a regional scale, the model captured the major characteristics of the changes reported in yield as well as the timing and length of maize growth periods across the Corn Belt. The simulation results using the calibrated model indicate that while the climate change observed for the period likely contributed to a decreasing yield trend, the positive contribution from the reported shift to an earlier sowing date offset the negative impacts. With the given spread in the assessment results across previous studies and in this study, the conclusion that the negative impacts of climate change on U.S. maize yield trend more likely derive from a decreasing trend in growing-season precipitation than to an increasing trend in temperature.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)73-90
ページ数18
ジャーナルjournal of agricultural meteorology
70
2
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2014
外部発表はい

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 農業および作物学
  • 大気科学

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