Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting Using an Adaptive Combination Method in the Japanese Spot Market

Manaka Omura, Yu Fujimoto, Hideo Ishii, Yasuhiro Hayashi, Toshiyuki Sawa, Hiroto Sasaki, Naoto Fukuyama

研究成果: Conference contribution

1 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

Forecasting the electricity spot market price (i.e., the price of electricity traded for the next day) is important in planning efficient power generation and demand schedules. This research aims to discuss the following two points in the forecasting task: an explicit scheme for estimating high and low-price situations and an effective weighted integration of given multiple forecast products depending on the estimated situations. The authors propose an adaptive method of combining market price forecasts (ADAPTIVE) to utilize several types of given forecast results efficiently and improve forecasting accuracy. The method aims to capture the features of the component models' results considering high- and low-prices situations. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed ADAPTIVE, numerical experiments were conducted on electricity spot market prices in the Japan Electric Power Exchange. The results indicate that the proposed method is a promising way to improve the accuracy of the conventional method of combining forecasts.

本文言語English
ホスト出版物のタイトル2020 17th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2020
出版社IEEE Computer Society
ISBN(電子版)9781728169194
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2020 9
イベント17th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2020 - Stockholm, Sweden
継続期間: 2020 9 162020 9 18

出版物シリーズ

名前International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM
2020-September
ISSN(印刷版)2165-4077
ISSN(電子版)2165-4093

Conference

Conference17th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2020
CountrySweden
CityStockholm
Period20/9/1620/9/18

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Marketing
  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Fuel Technology

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