EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings

Masahiro Sugiyama*, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kenichi Wada, Ken Oshiro, Etsushi Kato, Ryoichi Komiyama, Diego Silva Herran, Yuhji Matsuo, Hiroto Shiraki, Yiyi Ju


研究成果: Article査読

8 被引用数 (Scopus)


In June, 2019, Japan submitted its mid-century strategy to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and pledged 80% emissions cuts by 2050. The strategy has not gone through a systematic analysis, however. The present study, Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), employs five energy-economic and integrated assessment models to evaluate the nationally determined contribution and mid-century strategy of Japan. EMF 35 JMIP conducts a suite of sensitivity analyses on dimensions including emissions constraints, technology availability, and demand projections. The results confirm that Japan needs to deploy all of its mitigation strategies at a substantial scale, including energy efficiency, electricity decarbonization, and end-use electrification. Moreover, they suggest that with the absence of structural changes in the economy, heavy industries will be one of the hardest to decarbonize. Partitioning of the sum of squares based on a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) reconfirms that mitigation strategies, such as energy efficiency and electrification, are fairly robust across models and scenarios, but that the cost metrics are uncertain. There is a wide gap of policy strength and breadth between the current policy instruments and those suggested by the models. Japan should strengthen its climate action in all aspects of society and economy to achieve its long-term target.

ジャーナルSustainability Science
出版ステータスPublished - 2021 3

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 地球変動および惑星変動
  • 健康(社会科学)
  • 地理、計画および開発
  • 生態学
  • 社会学および政治科学
  • 自然保全および景観保全
  • 管理、モニタリング、政策と法律


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