@inproceedings{de72e582534042f08e3e79ccb7e00402,
title = "Ensemble forecast of extreme storm surge: A case study of 2013 typhoon haiyan",
abstract = "The object of this study is to evaluate an ensemble forecast of extreme storm surge by using a case of Typhoon Haiyan (2013) and its associated storm surge. A simple numerical model composed of ARW-WRF, FVCOM and SWAN is employed as a forecast system for storm surge. This ensemble system can successfully forecast storm surge 3-4 days before it happened. However, the typhoons in almost all ensemble members were underpredicted probably because of its difficulty in forecasting a track and central pressure of highly intense typhoon. This leads to the underestimation of a prediction of storm surges around Leyte Gulf. Compensating the underestimation of forecasted extreme storm surge, it can be important to not only examine the ensemble mean among members but also consider the phase-shifted manipulation and the worst ensemble member in the case where the extreme storm surge is forecasted. In addition, the ensemble forecast system can have a potential to determine the time at which the peak of extreme surge appears with a high precision.",
keywords = "Ensemble forecast, FVCOM, Storm surge, Typhoon Haiyan, WRF",
author = "Ryota Nakamura and Tomoya Shibayama",
note = "Funding Information: The authors express appreciations for financially supports from both of the program for the Strategic Research Foundation grant for Private Universities from Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT; No. S1311028, Tomoya Shibayama) and Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows (No.16J07998, Ryota Nakamura). Also, we thanks to Mr. Maell Martin who assisted in the correction of the phraseology of abstract and in-depth abstract in this study.; 35th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2016 ; Conference date: 17-11-2016 Through 20-11-2016",
year = "2016",
language = "English",
series = "Proceedings of the Coastal Engineering Conference",
publisher = "American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)",
editor = "Patrick Lynett",
booktitle = "Proceedings of the 35th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2016",
}