Ensemble forecast of extreme storm surge: A case study of 2013 typhoon haiyan

Ryota Nakamura, Tomoya Shibayama

研究成果: Conference contribution

抄録

The object of this study is to evaluate an ensemble forecast of extreme storm surge by using a case of Typhoon Haiyan (2013) and its associated storm surge. A simple numerical model composed of ARW-WRF, FVCOM and SWAN is employed as a forecast system for storm surge. This ensemble system can successfully forecast storm surge 3-4 days before it happened. However, the typhoons in almost all ensemble members were underpredicted probably because of its difficulty in forecasting a track and central pressure of highly intense typhoon. This leads to the underestimation of a prediction of storm surges around Leyte Gulf. Compensating the underestimation of forecasted extreme storm surge, it can be important to not only examine the ensemble mean among members but also consider the phase-shifted manipulation and the worst ensemble member in the case where the extreme storm surge is forecasted. In addition, the ensemble forecast system can have a potential to determine the time at which the peak of extreme surge appears with a high precision.

本文言語English
ホスト出版物のタイトルProceedings of the 35th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2016
編集者Patrick Lynett
出版社American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
ISBN(電子版)9780989661133
出版ステータスPublished - 2016
イベント35th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2016 - Antalya, Turkey
継続期間: 2016 11 172016 11 20

出版物シリーズ

名前Proceedings of the Coastal Engineering Conference
35
ISSN(印刷版)0161-3782

Other

Other35th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ICCE 2016
国/地域Turkey
CityAntalya
Period16/11/1716/11/20

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 土木構造工学
  • 海洋工学
  • 海洋学

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