Envisioning sustainable manufacturing industries of japan

Yuji Mizuno*, Yusuke Kishita, Shinichi Fukushige, Yasushi Umeda

*この研究の対応する著者

研究成果: Article査読

8 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

In order to adapt to or overcome the difficulties Japan’s manufacturing industry is facing today, drawing normative future visions of sustainable manufacturing is required. The future is undeterminable, so the future visions cannot be fixed. Therefore, in order to draw visions of sustainable manufacturing of Japan, our research group has developed its Sustainable Manufacturing Scenario using the backcasting method. Here, a scenario is a set of stories detailing several future visions and transition paths toward them. Backcasting is a method of developing a scenario, one in which ideal future visions are developed, and then transition paths from the visions back to the present are drawn. To quantify and evaluate the future visions, we propose a model called SISA (Scenario-based Industrial Structure Analysis), which is based on Input-Output (I-O) tables. An I-O table quantitatively represents final consumption and transactions among industrial branches of a specific region in a specific period. In the SISA model, the I-O table representing future industry is given from the present I-O table, and several parameters reflect the hypotheses set in the scenario. Our research group has developed five different future visions of Japanese manufacturing industries. We set three future targets: GDP, employment, and CO2 . The visions are quantified on the SISA model and investigated as to whether they achieve the future targets or not. Based on this analysis, we have concluded that drastic technological change is required to achieve the CO2 target, and cooperation with service manufacturing is important if the employment target is to be met.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)634-643
ページ数10
ジャーナルInternational Journal of Automation Technology
8
5
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2014 9 1
外部発表はい

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 機械工学
  • 産業および生産工学

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