Evaluation of the Productivity Decrease Risk Due to a Future Increase in Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Japan

Miguel Esteban*, Gorka Longarte-Galnares

*この研究の対応する著者

研究成果: Article査読

9 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

A number of scientists have recently conducted research that shows that tropical cyclone intensity is likely to increase in the future. This would result in an increase in the damage along with a decrease in economic productivity due to precautionary cessation of the economic activity of the affected areas during the passage of the cyclone. The economic effect of this stop in economic activity is a phenomenon that has not received much attention in the past, and the cumulative effect that it can have on the Japanese economy over the next 75 years has never been evaluated. The starting point for the evaluation of the economic risks is the change in the patterns of tropical cyclone intensity suggested by Knutson and Tuleya.() The results obtained show how a significant decrease in the overall productivity of the country could be expected, which could lower GDP by between 6% and 13% by 2085.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)1789-1802
ページ数14
ジャーナルRisk Analysis
30
12
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2010 12月 1

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 安全性、リスク、信頼性、品質管理
  • 生理学(医学)

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