Global capital market interdependence and spillover effect of credit risk: Evidence from the 2007-2009 global financial crisis

William Cheung, Scott Fung, Shih Chuan Tsai

研究成果: Article査読

56 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

This article examines the impact of the 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis on the interrelationships among global stock markets and the informational role of the TED spread as perceived credit risk. The current crisis originated from the dominant US market has a prompt and pervasive spillover effect into other global markets. Using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, Granger causality test, cointegrating Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), we document enhanced leadership of the US market with respect to UK, Hong Kong, Japan, Australia, Russia and China markets during the crisis. Consistent with the contagion theory, the interdependence among international stock markets becomes stronger in the crisis. The TED spread serves as a leading 'fear' indicator and adjusts to new information rapidly during the crisis. While the impact of orthogonalized shocks from the US market on other global markets increases by at least two times during the crisis, the impact of orthogonalized shocks from the TED spread on global market indices increase by at least five times. Overall, these findings shed light on the dynamics of international stock market linkage and the spillover effect of credit risk.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)85-103
ページ数19
ジャーナルApplied Financial Economics
20
1-2
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2010 1
外部発表はい

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics

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