Human judgment under sample space ignorance

Michael Smithson, Thomas Bartos, Kazuhisa Takemura

研究成果: Article査読

19 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

This paper surveys results of a research program investigating human judgments of imprecise probabilities under sample-space ignorance (i.e., ignorance of what the possible outcomes are in a decision). The framework used for comparisons with human judgments is primarily due to Walley (1991, 1996). Five studies are reported which test four of Walley's prescriptions for judgment under sample-space ignorance, as well as assessing the impact of the number of observations and types of events on subjective lower and upper probability estimates. The paper concludes with a synopsis of future directions for empirical research on subjective imprecise probability judgments.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)135-150
ページ数16
ジャーナルRisk, Decision and Policy
5
2
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2000
外部発表はい

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 統計学および確率
  • 哲学
  • 地球化学および岩石学

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