Human judgment under sample space ignorance

Michael Smithson, Thomas Bartos, Kazuhisa Takemura

研究成果: Article

15 引用 (Scopus)

抄録

This paper surveys results of a research program investigating human judgments of imprecise probabilities under sample-space ignorance (i.e., ignorance of what the possible outcomes are in a decision). The framework used for comparisons with human judgments is primarily due to Walley (1991, 1996). Five studies are reported which test four of Walley's prescriptions for judgment under sample-space ignorance, as well as assessing the impact of the number of observations and types of events on subjective lower and upper probability estimates. The paper concludes with a synopsis of future directions for empirical research on subjective imprecise probability judgments.

元の言語English
ページ(範囲)135-150
ページ数16
ジャーナルRisk, Decision and Policy
5
発行部数2
DOI
出版物ステータスPublished - 2000 1 1
外部発表Yes

Fingerprint

Sample space
Imprecise Probabilities
Upper and Lower Probabilities
Subjective Probability
research program
Empirical Research
Judgment
Human
Ignorance
Estimate

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Philosophy
  • Geochemistry and Petrology

これを引用

Human judgment under sample space ignorance. / Smithson, Michael; Bartos, Thomas; Takemura, Kazuhisa.

:: Risk, Decision and Policy, 巻 5, 番号 2, 01.01.2000, p. 135-150.

研究成果: Article

Smithson, Michael ; Bartos, Thomas ; Takemura, Kazuhisa. / Human judgment under sample space ignorance. :: Risk, Decision and Policy. 2000 ; 巻 5, 番号 2. pp. 135-150.
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