Implications of paradigm shift in Japan's electricity security of supply: A multi-dimensional indicator assessment

Joana Portugal-Pereira*, Miguel Esteban

*この研究の対応する著者

研究成果: Article査読

62 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

The present study developed a series of indicators to assess the electricity generation security of supply under different energy portfolios in Japan in a post-3/11 context. A baseline and four alternative scenarios were designed assuming different shares of fossil fuel and nuclear thermal power and renewables in a 2030 timeframe. The analysis revealed that expanding endogenous energy resources together with a reduction of nuclear power and fossil fuel technologies appears to be a promising strategy to enhance electricity security of supply. Under this strategy imported fossil fuel dependence would decrease to 69.3%, whereas environmental impacts would decline 15-22%, compared to pre-Fukushima levels (baseline scenario). However, an immediate transition to grid-connected renewable energies is not realistic and would increase stress on the system reliability in the short-term, given infrastructure and technical constraints. Investment should be channelised to develop storage and back-up systems, as well as de-centralisation of supply systems to increase energy system resilience and security of supply.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)424-434
ページ数11
ジャーナルApplied Energy
123
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2014 6月 15
外部発表はい

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 建築および建設
  • エネルギー(全般)
  • 機械工学
  • 管理、モニタリング、政策と法律

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