Improvement of prediction interval estimation algorithm with just-in-time modeling for PV system operation

Tomohide Yamazaki; Shinji Wakao; Yu Fujimoto; Yasuhiro Hayashi

doi:10.1109/PVSC.2015.7355994

Improvement of prediction interval estimation algorithm with just-in-time modeling for PV system operation

Tomohide Yamazaki, Shinji Wakao, Yu Fujimoto, Yasuhiro Hayashi

スマート社会技術融合研究機構

研究成果

6 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

Output of the photovoltaic (PV) system drastically fluctuates depending on weather conditions. Therefore users of PV systems should manage their energy usage with forecast information of the PV output. Due to the reasons above, we have developed an estimation method of X% prediction interval of solar irradiance. We have achieved a high-accuracy prediction interval for any prediction coefficient X%. However, we found that there are some errors in a case where the prediction coefficient is high. In this paper, we improve the estimation algorithm of the prediction interval.

本文言語	English
ホスト出版物のタイトル	2015 IEEE 42nd Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2015
出版社	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
ISBN（印刷版）	9781479979448
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1109/PVSC.2015.7355994
出版ステータス	Published - 2015 12月 14
イベント	42nd IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2015 - New Orleans, United States 継続期間: 2015 6月 14 → 2015 6月 19

Other

Other	42nd IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2015
国/地域	United States
City	New Orleans
Period	15/6/14 → 15/6/19

ASJC Scopus subject areas

電子工学および電気工学
電子材料、光学材料、および磁性材料

UN SDG

この成果は、次の持続可能な開発目標に貢献しています

文献へのアクセス

10.1109/PVSC.2015.7355994

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引用スタイル

Yamazaki, T, Wakao, S , Fujimoto, Y & Hayashi, Y 2015, Improvement of prediction interval estimation algorithm with just-in-time modeling for PV system operation. in 2015 IEEE 42nd Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2015., 7355994, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 42nd IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2015, New Orleans, United States, 15/6/14. https://doi.org/10.1109/PVSC.2015.7355994

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abstract = "Output of the photovoltaic (PV) system drastically fluctuates depending on weather conditions. Therefore users of PV systems should manage their energy usage with forecast information of the PV output. Due to the reasons above, we have developed an estimation method of X% prediction interval of solar irradiance. We have achieved a high-accuracy prediction interval for any prediction coefficient X%. However, we found that there are some errors in a case where the prediction coefficient is high. In this paper, we improve the estimation algorithm of the prediction interval.",

author = "Tomohide Yamazaki and Shinji Wakao and Yu Fujimoto and Yasuhiro Hayashi",

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booktitle = "2015 IEEE 42nd Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2015",

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AU - Yamazaki, Tomohide

AU - Wakao, Shinji

AU - Fujimoto, Yu

AU - Hayashi, Yasuhiro

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Y1 - 2015/12/14

N2 - Output of the photovoltaic (PV) system drastically fluctuates depending on weather conditions. Therefore users of PV systems should manage their energy usage with forecast information of the PV output. Due to the reasons above, we have developed an estimation method of X% prediction interval of solar irradiance. We have achieved a high-accuracy prediction interval for any prediction coefficient X%. However, we found that there are some errors in a case where the prediction coefficient is high. In this paper, we improve the estimation algorithm of the prediction interval.

AB - Output of the photovoltaic (PV) system drastically fluctuates depending on weather conditions. Therefore users of PV systems should manage their energy usage with forecast information of the PV output. Due to the reasons above, we have developed an estimation method of X% prediction interval of solar irradiance. We have achieved a high-accuracy prediction interval for any prediction coefficient X%. However, we found that there are some errors in a case where the prediction coefficient is high. In this paper, we improve the estimation algorithm of the prediction interval.

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DO - 10.1109/PVSC.2015.7355994

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SN - 9781479979448

BT - 2015 IEEE 42nd Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2015

PB - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.

T2 - 42nd IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2015

Y2 - 14 June 2015 through 19 June 2015

ER -

Improvement of prediction interval estimation algorithm with just-in-time modeling for PV system operation

抄録

Other

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDG

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