Internal and external determinants of housing price boom in Hong Kong

Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary*, Naoyuki Yoshino, Aline Mortha, Alvin Chiu, Niki Naderi

*この研究の対応する著者

研究成果: Review article査読

抄録

Hong Kong's housing market witnessed a dramatic housing price appreciation in recent years, with the price index for private domestic housing units being three times higher than ten years ago. This trend is supported by both internal and external factors, as illustrated in this paper. By developing a theoretical model and an empirical analysis on the key variables influencing housing prices using monthly data from 1999 to 2018, we find that the main drivers of housing price appreciation are from the demand side and include income level, money supply and inflation. The main contribution of this study is the quantification of the role of Mainland China's macroeconomic factors in housing price booms in Hong Kong. Our study shows that capital inflow from and inflation and recessions in Mainland China contribute to increasing housing prices in Hong Kong because the city's real estate is seen as a way to preserve asset value. These findings call for the need for control of capital inflow between the two economies as well as for stricter regulations against empty houses in Hong Kong.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)597-620
ページ数24
ジャーナルBuletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan
23
4
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2020 12月 31

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 財務

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