Demand response (DR) is a key technology for the smart grid, and to manage and optimize DR of energy consumers, accurate prediction of DR potential in each energy consumers is required. In this paper we focus on building and its facilities as the target of DR, and propose a general physical energy modeling procedure to estimate the DR potentials. First an energy model based on the thermal load model is estimated from restricted basic information of the target building. Then the model parameter, especially performance of HVAC facilities, is adjusted by decomposition of modeling error caused by operation and structure of the building. The modeling procedure is applied to an actual building, and the estimation of DR potential is compared with actual DR experiment.
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