Methodology for the estimation of the increase in time loss due to future increase in tropical cyclone intensity in Japan

Miguel Esteban*, Christian Webersik, Tomoya Shibayama

*この研究の対応する著者

研究成果: Article査読

29 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

The present paper develops a methodology for estimating the risks and consequences of possible future increases in tropical cyclone intensities that would allow policy makers to relatively quickly evaluate the cost of different mitigation strategies. The methodology simulates future tropical cyclones by modifying the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2007. It then uses a Monte Carlo Simulation to obtain the expected number of hours that a certain area can expect to be affected by winds of a given strength. The methodology outlined has a range of applications, and the present paper shows as an example the calculation of the expected cost of mitigation of the increased downtime for Japanese ports by 2085 for a variety of economic growth scenarios.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)555-578
ページ数24
ジャーナルClimatic Change
102
3
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2010
外部発表はい

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 地球変動および惑星変動
  • 大気科学

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