TY - JOUR
T1 - Modeling irrigation-based climate change adaptation in agriculture
T2 - Model development and evaluation in Northeast China
AU - Okada, Masashi
AU - Iizumi, Toshichika
AU - Sakurai, Gen
AU - Hanasaki, Naota
AU - Sakai, Toru
AU - Okamoto, Katsuo
AU - Yokozawa, Masayuki
PY - 2015/9/1
Y1 - 2015/9/1
N2 - Replacing a rainfed cropping system with an irrigated one is widely assumed to be an effective measure for climate change adaptation. However, many agricultural impact studies have not necessarily accounted for the space-time variations in the water availability under changing climate and land use. Moreover, many hydrologic and agricultural assessments of climate change impacts are not fully integrated. To overcome this shortcoming, a tool that can simultaneously simulate the dynamic interactions between crop production and water resources in a watershed is essential. Here we propose the regional production and circulation coupled model (CROVER) by embedding the PRYSBI-2 (Process-based Regional Yield Simulator with Bayesian Inference version 2) large-area crop model into the global water resources model (called H08), and apply this model to the Songhua River watershed in Northeast China. The evaluation reveals that the model's performance in capturing the major characteristics of historical change in surface soil moisture, river discharge, actual crop evapotranspiration, and soybean yield relative to the reference data during the interval 1979-2010 is satisfactory accurate. The simulation experiments using the model demonstrated that subregional irrigation management, such as designating the area to which irrigation is primarily applied, has measurable influences on the regional crop production in a drought year. This finding suggests that reassessing climate change risk in agriculture using this type of modeling is crucial not to overestimate potential of irrigation-based adaptation. Key Points: This study developed a coupled crop production and river circulation model The model can accurately capture the major features of hydrology and crop yield The model is useful in assessing climate change adaptation based on irrigation
AB - Replacing a rainfed cropping system with an irrigated one is widely assumed to be an effective measure for climate change adaptation. However, many agricultural impact studies have not necessarily accounted for the space-time variations in the water availability under changing climate and land use. Moreover, many hydrologic and agricultural assessments of climate change impacts are not fully integrated. To overcome this shortcoming, a tool that can simultaneously simulate the dynamic interactions between crop production and water resources in a watershed is essential. Here we propose the regional production and circulation coupled model (CROVER) by embedding the PRYSBI-2 (Process-based Regional Yield Simulator with Bayesian Inference version 2) large-area crop model into the global water resources model (called H08), and apply this model to the Songhua River watershed in Northeast China. The evaluation reveals that the model's performance in capturing the major characteristics of historical change in surface soil moisture, river discharge, actual crop evapotranspiration, and soybean yield relative to the reference data during the interval 1979-2010 is satisfactory accurate. The simulation experiments using the model demonstrated that subregional irrigation management, such as designating the area to which irrigation is primarily applied, has measurable influences on the regional crop production in a drought year. This finding suggests that reassessing climate change risk in agriculture using this type of modeling is crucial not to overestimate potential of irrigation-based adaptation. Key Points: This study developed a coupled crop production and river circulation model The model can accurately capture the major features of hydrology and crop yield The model is useful in assessing climate change adaptation based on irrigation
KW - The model can accurately capture the major features of hydrology and crop yield
KW - The model is useful in assessing climate change adaptation based on irrigation
KW - This study developed a coupled crop production and river circulation model
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U2 - 10.1002/2014MS000402
DO - 10.1002/2014MS000402
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84944877973
VL - 7
SP - 1409
EP - 1424
JO - Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
JF - Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
SN - 1942-2466
IS - 3
ER -