Population of the temperate mosquito, Culex pipiens, decreases in response to habitat climatological changes in future

K. Watanabe, S. Fukui, S. Ohta*

*この研究の対応する著者

研究成果: Article査読

抄録

Predictions of the temporal distribution of vector mosquitoes are an important issue for human health because the response of mosquito populations to climate change could have implications for the risk of vector-borne diseases. To elucidate the effects of climate change on mosquito populations inhabiting temperate regions, we developed a Physiology-based Climate-driven Mosquito Population model for temperate regions. For accurately reproducing the temporal patterns observed in mosquito populations, the key factors were identified by implementing the combinations of factors into the model. We focused on three factors: the effect of diapause, the positive effect of rainfall on larval carrying capacity, and the negative effect of rainfall as the washout mortality on aquatic stages. For each model, parameters were calibrated using weekly observation data of a Culex pipiens adult population collected in Tokyo, Japan. Based on its likelihood value, the model incorporating diapause, constant carrying capacity, and washout mortality was the best to replicate the observed data. By using the selected model and applying global climate model data, our results indicated that the mosquito population would decrease and adults’ active season would be shortened under future climate conditions. We found that incorporating the washout effect in the model settings or not caused a difference in the temporal patterns in the projected mosquito populations. This suggested that water resources in mosquito habitats in temperate regions should be considered for predicting the risk of vector-borne diseases in such regions.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)196-210
ページ数15
ジャーナルGeoHealth
1
4
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2017 6

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 地球変動および惑星変動
  • 公衆衛生学、環境および労働衛生
  • 疫学
  • 汚染
  • 廃棄物管理と処理
  • 水の科学と技術
  • 健康、毒物学および変異誘発
  • 管理、モニタリング、政策と法律

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