Prediction interval estimation of 10 second fluctuation of PV output with just-in-time modeling

Nao Kumekawa, Hayato Honma, Shinji Wakao

    研究成果: Conference contribution

    3 引用 (Scopus)

    抜粋

    The Output of photovoltaic (PV) systems depends on weather conditions. Therefore if there is a large introduction of PV systems, the power quality in the distribution system will be affected. One effective solution for this problem is to predict PV output. Although the need for prediction information for short period fluctuation is increasing, it is difficult to directly predict a steep fluctuation on the second time scale. For the prediction information of PV output, we propose the estimation of the prediction interval of the fluctuation widths on a 10 second scale. In this paper, we carry out the prediction by using the conventional method, with one-dimensional kernel density estimation, and the proposed method, with two-dimensional kernel density estimation. Then, we discuss the effectiveness of the proposed method based on several numerical indexes.

    元の言語English
    ホスト出版物のタイトル2016 IEEE 43rd Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2016
    出版者Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
    ページ1825-1830
    ページ数6
    2016-November
    ISBN(電子版)9781509027248
    DOI
    出版物ステータスPublished - 2016 11 18
    イベント43rd IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2016 - Portland, United States
    継続期間: 2016 6 52016 6 10

    Other

    Other43rd IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2016
    United States
    Portland
    期間16/6/516/6/10

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Control and Systems Engineering
    • Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
    • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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  • これを引用

    Kumekawa, N., Honma, H., & Wakao, S. (2016). Prediction interval estimation of 10 second fluctuation of PV output with just-in-time modeling. : 2016 IEEE 43rd Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, PVSC 2016 (巻 2016-November, pp. 1825-1830). [7749937] Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1109/PVSC.2016.7749937