Prediction interval estimation of 10 second fluctuation of PV output with just-in-time modeling

Nao Kumekawa, Hayato Honma, Shinji Wakao

研究成果: Conference contribution

抄録

The Output of photovoltaic (PV) systems depends on weather conditions. Therefore if there is a large introduction of PV systems, the power quality in the distribution system will be affected. One effective solution for this problem is to predict PV output. Although the need for prediction information for short period fluctuation is increasing, it is difficult to directly predict a steep fluctuation on the second time scale. For the prediction information of PV output, we propose the estimation of the prediction interval of the fluctuation widths on a 10 second scale. In this paper, we carry out the prediction by using the conventional method, with one-dimensional kernel density estimation, and the proposed method, with two-dimensional kernel density estimation. Then, we discuss the effectiveness of the proposed method based on several numerical indexes.

本文言語English
ホスト出版物のタイトル2017 IEEE 44th Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2017
出版社Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
ページ3494-3499
ページ数6
ISBN(電子版)9781509056057
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2017
イベント44th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2017 - Washington, United States
継続期間: 2017 6 252017 6 30

出版物シリーズ

名前2017 IEEE 44th Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2017

Other

Other44th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference, PVSC 2017
国/地域United States
CityWashington
Period17/6/2517/6/30

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 再生可能エネルギー、持続可能性、環境
  • 電子工学および電気工学
  • 電子材料、光学材料、および磁性材料

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