Proposal of a design support method for sustainability scenarios 1st report: Designing forecasting scenarios

Haruna Wada*, Yusuke Kishita, Yuji Mizuno, Maki Hirosaki, Shinichi Fukushige, Yasushi Umeda

*この研究の対応する著者

研究成果

10 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

Although there are many scenario description methods, computational support has not been provided for scenario design. This paper proposes a method for supporting design of forecasting scenarios. This method supports determining storylines, which are key assumptions of sub scenarios, and describing sub scenarios based on the causal network and storyline. As a case study for verifying feasibility of this method, we described a forecasting scenario about changes of automobile industry when electric vehicles are diffused. Results illustrate that the usage of causal networks effectively supports generating storylines. Also, describing scenario texts is supported by detailing causal networks and the storylines.

本文言語English
ホスト出版物のタイトルGlocalized Solutions for Sustainability in Manufacturing - Proceedings of the 18th CIRP International Conference on Life Cycle Engineering
出版社Springer Science and Business Media, LLC
ページ189-194
ページ数6
ISBN(印刷版)9783642196911
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2011
外部発表はい

出版物シリーズ

名前Glocalized Solutions for Sustainability in Manufacturing - Proceedings of the 18th CIRP International Conference on Life Cycle Engineering

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 再生可能エネルギー、持続可能性、環境
  • 産業および生産工学

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