Quantitative analysis of technology futures: A review of techniques, uses and characteristics

Tommaso Ciarli*, Alex Coad, Ismael Rafols

*この研究の対応する著者

研究成果: Article査読

7 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

A variety of quantitative techniques have been used in the past in future-oriented technology analysis (FTA). In recent years, increased computational power and data availability have led to the emergence of new techniques that are potentially useful for foresight and forecasting. As a result, there are now many techniques that might be used in FTA exercises. This paper reviews and qualifies quantitative methods for FTA in order to help users to make choices among alternative techniques, including new techniques that have not yet been integrated into the FTA literature and practice. We first provide a working definition of FTA and discuss its role, uses, and popularity over recent decades. Second, we select the most important quantitative FTA techniques, discuss their main contexts and uses, and classify them into groups with common characteristics, positioning them along key dimensions: descriptive/ prescriptive, extrapolative/normative, data gathering/inference, and forecasting/foresight.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)630-645
ページ数16
ジャーナルScience and Public Policy
43
5
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2016 10月
外部発表はい

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 地理、計画および開発
  • 行政
  • 管理、モニタリング、政策と法律

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