Aim: To determine the resident and facility characteristics associated with residents’ care-need level deterioration in long-term care welfare facilities in Japan. Methods: A nationally representative sample of 358 886 residents who lived in 3774 long-term care welfare facilities for at least 1 year from October 2012 was obtained from long-term care insurance claims data. Facility characteristics were linked with a survey of institutions and establishments for long-term care in 2012. We used a multilevel logistic regression according to the inclusion and exclusion of lost to follow-up to define the resident and facility characteristics associated with resident care-need level deteriorations (lost to follow-up: the majority were hospitalized residents or had died; were treated as deterioration in the including loss to follow-up model). Results: Adjusting for the covariates, at the resident level, older age and lower care-need level at baseline were more likely to show deterioration in the care-need level. At the facility level, metropolitan facilities, unit model (all private room settings) and mixed-model facilities (partly private room settings) were less likely to experience care-need level deterioration. A higher proportion of registered nurses among all nurses was negatively related to care-need level deterioration only in the model including lost to follow-up. A higher proportion of registered dietitians among all dietitians and the facilities in business for fewer years were negatively associated with care-need level deterioration only in the model excluding lost to follow-up. Conclusions: The present study could help identify residents who are at risk of care-need level deterioration, and could contribute to improvements in provider quality performance and enhance competence in the market. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2018; 18: 758–766.
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