Response of macro variables of emerging and developed oil importers to oil price movements

Farhad Taghi Zadeh Hesary*, Naoyuki Yoshino, Majid Mohammadi Hossein Abadi, Rosa Farboudmanesh

*この研究の対応する著者

研究成果: Article査読

38 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

This paper assesses the impact of crude oil price movements on two macro variables, the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and consumer price index inflation rate, in the developed economies of the United States and Japan, and an emerging economy, the People's Republic of China (PRC). These countries were chosen for this research because they are the world's three largest oil consumers. The main objective of this study is to see whether these economies are still reactive to oil price movements. The results obtained suggest that the impact of oil price fluctuations on developed oil importers’ GDP growth is much lower than on the GDP growth of an emerging economy. The main reasons for this lie in fuel substitution (higher use of nuclear energy, gas, and renewables), a declining population (for Japan), the shale gas revolution (for the United States), and strategic oil stocks and government-mandated energy efficiency targets in developed economies. All of these factors make developed economies more resistant to oil shocks. On the other hand, the impact of oil price movements on the PRC's inflation rate was found to be milder than in the two developed countries that were examined. The main cause for this is that the PRC experiences a larger forward shift in its aggregate supply due to higher growth, which allows it to avoid a massive increase in price levels following oil price shocks.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)91-102
ページ数12
ジャーナルJournal of the Asia Pacific Economy
21
1
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2016 1 2
外部発表はい

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 地理、計画および開発
  • 開発
  • 政治学と国際関係論

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