System analysis of the food supply and demand in China in the 21st century

Economic, political, environmental and agricultural variables were incorporated into a model in order to predict food supply and demand in the 21st century. Market forces do not apply to agricultural products in domestic market and price is determined politically. Invisible hand are used in order to increase prices of agricultural products. Population, area of arable land and income in the agricultural sector are key factors which determine cereal prices. Scenario analysis using a numerical model was carried out to predict cereal prices in the People's Republic of China (PRC) in the 21st century. The analysis shows that cereal prices will increase in the PRC rapidly if the country continues it's high rate of economic growth. The Chinese government have announced that they will continue the policy of self-sufficiency for food, but importing cheap cereal from international markets would be attractive an option for providing low price food to the people living in cities.