TY - JOUR
T1 - The impact of supporters' ideological preferences on parties' coalition choices
T2 - Evidence from New Zealand and Japan
AU - Jou, Willy
PY - 2010/12/1
Y1 - 2010/12/1
N2 - Works on coalition formation and survival have traditionally focused on tactical and policy considerations at the elite level, and frequently neglected the role of voters. This study draws attention to how policy preferences among supporters may constrain parties' coalition choices and affect their subsequent electoral performance. New Zealand and Japan, which have seen both significant party system changes and the emergence of previously unfamiliar coalition cabinets as the new norm since the 1990s, provide suitable cases for hypothesis testing. Analysis of cross-temporal survey data demonstrates that the distance between the ideological mean of each coalition partner (measured by its supporters' left-right positions) and the coalition mean is negatively correlated with its vote share change in the following election. Parties participating in or supporting an ideologically distant cabinet, especially when alternative coalition choices are possible, face particularly heavy electoral sanctions. These findings highlight a micro-political explanation complementing existing coalition theories, and confirm the ideal of democratic representation that governments are held accountable by their voters.
AB - Works on coalition formation and survival have traditionally focused on tactical and policy considerations at the elite level, and frequently neglected the role of voters. This study draws attention to how policy preferences among supporters may constrain parties' coalition choices and affect their subsequent electoral performance. New Zealand and Japan, which have seen both significant party system changes and the emergence of previously unfamiliar coalition cabinets as the new norm since the 1990s, provide suitable cases for hypothesis testing. Analysis of cross-temporal survey data demonstrates that the distance between the ideological mean of each coalition partner (measured by its supporters' left-right positions) and the coalition mean is negatively correlated with its vote share change in the following election. Parties participating in or supporting an ideologically distant cabinet, especially when alternative coalition choices are possible, face particularly heavy electoral sanctions. These findings highlight a micro-political explanation complementing existing coalition theories, and confirm the ideal of democratic representation that governments are held accountable by their voters.
KW - Japan
KW - New Zealand
KW - coalition
KW - ideology
KW - party supporters
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U2 - 10.1177/0032318710384959
DO - 10.1177/0032318710384959
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:79751512019
VL - 62
SP - 166
EP - 188
JO - Political Science
JF - Political Science
SN - 0032-3187
IS - 2
ER -