Tree-ring reconstructed summer temperature anomalies for temperate East Asia since 800 C.E

Edward R. Cook, Paul J. Krusic, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Brendan M. Buckley, Takeshi Nakatsuka, Masaki Sano

研究成果: Article査読

145 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

We develop a summer temperature reconstruction for temperate East Asia based on a network of annual tree-ring chronologies covering the period 800-1989 C.E. The East Asia reconstruction is the regional average of 585 individual grid point summer temperature reconstructions produced using an ensemble version of point-by-point regression. Statistical calibration and validation tests indicate that the regional average possesses sufficient overall skill to allow it to be used to study the causes of temperature variability and change over the region. The reconstruction suggests a moderately warm early medieval epoch (ca. 850-1050 C.E.), followed by generally cooler 'Little Ice Age' conditions (ca. 1350-1880 C.E.) and 20th century warming up to the present time. Since 1990, average temperature has exceeded past warm epochs of comparable duration, but it is not statistically unprecedented. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a volcanic forcing signal in the East Asia summer temperature reconstruction, resulting in pulses of cooler summer conditions that may persist for several years. Substantial uncertainties remain, however, particularly at lower frequencies, thus requiring caution and scientific prudence in the interpretation of this record.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)2957-2972
ページ数16
ジャーナルClimate Dynamics
41
11-12
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2013 12
外部発表はい

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 大気科学

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