What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio? A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

Hajime Katayama, Natalia Ponomareva, Malvin Sharma

研究成果: Article査読

2 被引用数 (Scopus)

抄録

Existing empirical studies on the sacrifice ratio (measuring the output cost of disinflation) consider a large number of potential explanatory variables including the length of disinflation, various institutional settings, economic conditions, and the political climate. Some results are robust across different studies, while others are not. We address the presence of model uncertainty by using the Bayesian model averaging method to identify the important determinants of the sacrifice ratio, without relying on ad hoc model selection. Our results show that the length of disinflation is the most important variable. This supports the ‘cold turkey’ argument for faster disinflation.

本文言語English
ページ(範囲)960-988
ページ数29
ジャーナルOxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
81
5
DOI
出版ステータスPublished - 2019 10 1

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 統計学および確率
  • 社会科学(その他)
  • 経済学、計量経済学
  • 統計学、確率および不確実性

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